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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still